EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
(July 17 – 19, 2001)
TOPIC:
PROMOTING CONSTRUCTIVE CHANGE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA
North
Korea is a humanitarian problem wrapped in a political problem.
The
North Korean government’s main goal is survival of the regime and the current
system.
North
Korea must reform to survive, but at the same time reform if not carefully
managed threatens its survival.
Despite
the attention given to Pyongyang’s recent diplomatic initiatives and economic
experiments, North Korea’s domestic and foreign policies have not dramatically
changed.
Members
of the group agreed Seoul’s “sunshine policy” is constructive, and expressed
hope that it would continue beyond the Kim Dae Jung Administration.
PROBLEMS
Pyongyang
suspects some of its neighbors want to destroy the regime.
North
Korea is relying on handouts rather than restructuring its economy.
At
the moment, Pyongyang resists following the Chinese model.
Some
North Korean actions have been counterproductive even with respect to the
country’s own interests.
For
example, Pyongyang has tried to trade threats for aid. While this strategy is partly a function of
Korean culture, it has generated ill will in the West.
Chinese
tend to believe the USA must make concessions; the USA, Japan and South Korea
believe North Korea must make concessions.
North
Korean military forces are insufficient to protect the security of the
regime. North Korea needs economic
interdependence as well.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Alleviate
North Korea’s sense of external threat.
Help
train and educate the generation of technocrats North Korea will need to
successfully reform.
Separate
political issues from humanitarian and economic assistance.
China
and the United States should put aside differences on other issues to cooperate
on Korea, where they have common goals.
Neither
China nor the USA opposes Korean reunification, but both believe the process
should be gradual to be successful.