Environmental
factors are significant and increasing shapers of the Asia-Pacific regional
security environment. Key USPACOM
activities such as forward deployment, theater security cooperation, and the
global war on terrorism (GWOT) can be impacted negatively if environmental
factors are ignored. Alternatively,
these activities may be enhanced through the incorporation of environmental
security techniques. The Environment
and Security Conference sponsored by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security
Studies (APCSS) was held on 19-21 November. The conference was organized into
two parts. The first addressed the impacts of environmental factors on key regional
states as well as transnational security threats such as drug trafficking and
infectious disease. The second part
focused on how environmental issues effect specific operational areas such as
“Roles and Missions of Regional Armed Forces”, “Theater Security Cooperation”,
“US Forward Presence”, “Civil-Military Operations”, and “Intelligence
Applications and Analysis” as well as how environmental security practices
could be used to increase the effectiveness of the US and its regional
counterparts in these activities.
Participants and attendees included:
military officers; civilian government analysts and environmental
specialists, scholars and State Department personnel from 7 countries. Following are the key findings to emerge
from the conference:
● Environmental factors significantly contribute to or exacerbate internal instability and conflict. They undermine economic development and political legitimacy in key states of the region while sharpening interstate tensions.
-
Water scarcity in China has the potential to trigger internal conflict, mass
migration, and minority unrest (early signs of which are appearing) that could
produce a national government crackdown.
Water scarcity also acts as a constraint on China’s economic development
and national power. Failure to
effectively address the water issue will seriously hamper China’s economic
growth. Addressing water problems will
require large amounts of political will and economic resources at the expense
of other endeavors.
- In
Indonesia, environmental issues have contributed to political instability for
several decades. With the fall of Suharto the impact of years of harmful
natural resource management policies are showing themselves more clearly. Natural resource issues are a driver of
conflict and insurgency (Irian Jaya, Kalimantan, Aceh, Northern Sumatra and
others) on par with ethnic and religious issues and will play a contributing
role in conflict and instability within during the foreseeable future.
- In
the Philippines unsustainable resource use/mismanagement of natural resources
and critical ecosystems has undermined economic development. Poverty in
combination with inequitable distribution of land (exacerbated by population
growth) have undermined state legitimacy and are prime drivers of instability,
communist and Moro insurgencies, and terrorism.
● Environmental factors (e.g. deforestation, land degradation, air/water pollution) combined with demographic pressures (population growth, urbanization) influence the emergence and diffusion of transnational threats such as piracy, infectious disease and drug production/trafficking.
- A primary driver of opium
cultivation in SE Asia is land scarcity and agricultural
decline
(related to the effects of deforestation and soil degradation).
- The growing infectious disease threat in the region
is partly related to environmental factors such as water pollution, air
pollution, and reduction of
biodiversity (creates environmental conditions favorable various
diseases and vectors while resulting in the loss of potentially precious medicinal resources), and climate change.
● Negative environmental impacts (real and perceived) of US bases abroad provide focal points for anti-base movements thus threatening US forward deployment.
- Current US environmental practices are state of the
art and often better than those practiced by the host country off-base. The US has not capitalized on this and
subsequently remains more vulnerable to accusations of poor environmental
stewardship and demands to relocate facilities/ reduce training than need be
the case. This represents a significant
lost opportunity in public diplomacy.
- The proposed relocation of Futenma NAS to Henoko has created common cause between anti-base activists and environmental movements, posing a significant challenge to local acceptance of US presence in Okinawa .
● Throughout the region, roles of armed forces are changing to include environmental missions such as disaster relief, CMO, environmental monitoring, anti-poaching, migrant interdiction, and development.
-
The Philippines have integrated environmental protection missions into
counterinsurgency and civil-military operations.
-
The Indian Army has a territorial (TA) battalion designated as an ecological task force.
● These mission/role changes and the increasing importance of environment as a security variable opens the door to numerous security cooperation opportunities.
-
Interstate cooperation: transborder
environmental problems can serve as starting points for dialogue and
cooperation. For instance, the only
area of cooperation that has withstood all tensions between India and Pakistan
is the Indus Water Treaty.
-
Theater Security Cooperation:
environmental assistance provides non-threatening/non-sensitive
engagement venues that can build domestic legitimacy for military forces in
newly democratizing countries as well as provide vehicles for inculcating
respect for rule of law, good governance, human rights, and environmental
stewardship.
-
Cooperation and assistance in the environmental sector can be used as a
confidence
building
measure in situations where more traditional forms of military
cooperation/assistance may be unacceptable to the host country.
● Global War on Terrorism.
- Environmental security engagement activities provide
valuable and non-threatening confidence building measures. CENTCOM environmental security engagement
activities were cited as a key reason behind the willingness of several Central
Asian countries to provide US base
access.
-
Environmental hazards (e.g. dams, nuclear power plants, toxic waste storage
sites, etc.) can be exploited by terrorists against nearby US facilities. Such
hazards must be considered in base camp site selection and vulnerability
assessments for existing and future US facilities.
-
Incorporating local communities into base environmental /resource management
activities extends reach of base commanders into host communities, builds
goodwill, and information flow – creating “social fences” and relationships
that enhance local force protection/I&W.
-
Environmental engagement can help address root causes of disaffection (e.g.
poverty, inequitable
resource
allocation, lack of infrastructure) that in some areas contribute to
sympathy/support for terrorists.
Within the Asia-Pacific environmental factors significantly
shape the regional security environment.
Continuing widespread environmental degradation, growing energy demand,
and climate change will increase the influence of environmental factors on
regional security substantially contributing to instability and conflict over
the foreseeable future.
In Indonesia environmental issues have contributed
to political instability for decades.
Mismanagement and inequitable distribution of the costs and benefits of
key natural resources (especially forests) in combination with corruption and
cronyism have undermined state-society relations and tremendously damaged
Indonesia’s rich natural environment (negatively impacting economic
development). Environmental degradation
and natural resources competition will continue to fuel conflict and
instability in Kalimantan, Irian Jaya (West Papua), Sumatra, Aceh, and other
areas.
Unsustainable resource use and mismanagement of natural
resources and critical ecosystems has undermined the Philippine’s
once rapid post-WW II economic growth.
Poverty combined with inequitable distribution of land (exacerbated by
population growth) has helped erode state legitimacy and is a prime driver of
instability and insurgency. The
Philippine government recognizes the links between environmental factors,
development, and security. However the
damage is extensive and will take years to redress especially given current
fiscal and capacity constraints.
Environmental degradation and natural resource issues will persist as
sources of instability. Environmental
protection, sustainable development, and environmental security should be a
significant part of external security assistance provided to the Philippines as
well as an integral part of government internal security programs.
Today China has water resources of less than
2,300 cubic meters per capita, one-fourth the world average. Approximately 60 million people have trouble
getting enough water for daily needs while half of China’s cities face serious
water shortages. Increasing water
scarcity and declining quality hinder agricultural, hydroelectric, industrial,
and inland fisheries production.
Polluted water negatively affects human health and labor
productivity. Ineffective or inadequate
water policies (which seem to be the current norm) will constrain China’s
economic growth and development. This,
in turn, will restrict national power (military and economic) and challenge
regime legitimacy. Concerted and
effective efforts will require vast amounts of political and economic capital
thus impacting financial and political priorities over the short to medium
term.
Great water supply disparities exist between surplus areas
in the south and east and deficit areas in the north and west. Worsening water distribution and freshwater
shortages are strengthening group identity, increasing parochialism, and
spurring migration. Competition for
water access is increasing between rural and urban populations, rich and poor,
minorities and Han, and region and region.
Should water issues acutely threaten social stability and economic
performance government policy may shift from a focus on economic growth to
stability first. The repercussions of
such a shift are unclear. If in
extremis this may lead to crackdowns, increasing nationalism and
retrenchment of conservative elements in government.
In South Asia increasing environmental change
and degradation will challenge and reshape the national security agendas of
regional states. State authority will
find it difficult to cope with intensifying environmental problems increasing
civil-state tensions especially in authoritarian regimes. Environmental issues will exacerbate the
north-south divide leading countries such as India to be suspicious of
developed countries in environmental negotiations. India will likely pursue a proactive environmental
diplomacy. Environmental degradation will
help spur the on-going mass movement of people contributing to border security
problems, ethnic tension, and socioeconomic instability both between and within
countries.
On the Korean peninsula transboundary
environmental issues have the potential for increasing both interstate tension
and cooperation. For instance:
▪
pollution of the Yellow Sea and overexploitation of marine resources sour
China/ROK relations.
▪ fishery disputes exacerbate Japan/ROK
tensions over contested Sea of Japan islands.
▪ the DMZ provides opportunities for
cooperation (establishment of a trans-boundary biosphere reserve) and conflict
(impact of Keumkangsan Dam on water flow from north into ROK).
▪
environmental cooperation has moved faster than economic cooperation in the
Yalu and Tumen
rivers
basins. The environmental sector may be
a promising place to begin confidence building between DPRK, ROK, Japan, China,
Mongolia, and Russia.
Environmental change and degradation contribute significantly to the expanding infectious disease threat facing the US and world. Deforestation, land conversion and rapid urbanization create opportunities for human exposure to unknown or uncommon infectious diseases and provide niches for more well-known concerns such as malaria to flourish. Air (indoor and outdoor), water pollution and lack of sanitation take an enormous toll on human life and reduce labor and economic productivity in much of the Asia-Pacific. HIV/AIDS poses an important threat to economic development and stability in the region, particularly in China and India.
Favorable ecological conditions, cultural traditions, population growth, land scarcity, and soil degradation are key drivers of opium production in highland Southeast Asia. Successful and sustainable crop substitution programs must address the cultural-ecological dimensions of opium cultivation. Thailand has had tremendous success in eradicating opium cultivation. However, failure to significantly reduce population growth in former opium growing areas has undercut the long-term sustainability of rural development efforts. Poverty, increasing drug use, and HIV/AIDS plague former opium growing villages leaving a high-degree of uncertainty about the future and raise the specter of hill tribe relocation.
Agricultural and
fisheries help spur piracy in Southeast Asia. Land shortages, soil degradation,
deforestation and population growth help push illegal migration
across the region.
Evolving Roles of Regional
Military Forces
Throughout the
region, roles and missions of armed forces are changing to include disaster
relief, CMO, environmental monitoring, anti-poaching, forest fire fighting,
migrant interdiction, and development.
Regional forces are also responding to contingencies and conflicts
related to environmental and natural resource factors. These trends present significant
opportunities for increased cooperation and engagement.
Theater Security
Cooperation/Regional Cooperation
India, Philippines, Indonesia, China, Thailand, and Mongolia are countries participants viewed as being fruitful locations for PACOM to pursue environmental security engagement. Military-military environmental cooperation is generally non-sensitive. This provides opportunities to increase/initiate programs with militaries where engagement would otherwise be controversial or where historic lack of confidence/mistrust exists. Environmental engagement provides a vehicle for transmission of values such as respect for rule of law, public service, environmental stewardship, and human rights particularly with militaries in newly democratizing countries.
Environmental engagement can help prevent or reduce internal instability that breeds insurgency and terrorism in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Care must be taken that environmental cooperation does not facilitate human rights abuses particularly in situations where resettlement of squatters/populations may be considered.
Anger over real and perceived environmental impacts of US forces contributes significantly to anti-base sentiment in Korea and Japan (particularly Okinawa) and anti-access movements in the Philippines. The relocation of Okinawa’s Futenma Naval Air Station to Henoko will face vigorous challenges from environmental groups. Lingering resentment from past poor waste management and land use policies in both Korea and Japan is still tapped into by anti-base movements. This threatens the sustainability of forward bases and damages the image of the United States and its armed forces.
US environmental practices are now generally state of the art and often better than those practiced by host countries off-base. The US has not capitalized on this and remains more vulnerable to accusations of poor environmental stewardship and demands to relocate facilities/ reduce training than need be the case. This represents a significant lost opportunity in public diplomacy. The integration of community-based civic works projects into environmental management can dramatically reduce environmentally oriented anti-base rhetoric, provide environmental benefits to both bases and host communities, and improve the US image. Programs at Kaneohe Marine Corps Base Hawaii illustrate that environmental protection, civil-military cooperation can occur while sustaining combat readiness and training.
Environmental considerations must be integrated into intelligence, strategic, and futures analyses. Ignoring relevant environmental variables will limit and undercut the strength and integrity of analysis and assessment. However, the dedication of intelligence platforms to the collection of environmental data is considered ill-advised. Limited assets are best used for other missions. Commercial remote sensing systems are cheaper with resolutions better suited for environmental analysis. Intelligence data collected for other purposes however may have analytical value for environmental security analysis (such has been the case with declassified KH series imagery) thereby providing an incidental and existing source of exploitable data.
Global War on Terrorism
● Access:
confidence and trust building achieved by environmental engagement can
pave the way for access or other military cooperation in support of
counter/anti-terrorism missions. The
precedence for this has been set in the CENTCOM AOR where environmental
engagement activities in helped secure base access, improve interoperability,
and protect health of US and coalition troops in several Central Asian
countries.
● Prediction/Prevention: the
incorporation of environmental factors into strategic analysis can improve the
ability to predict instability and identify socioeconomic disaffection that
breeds support for terrorism or terrorist ideologies. Environmental security measures geared at preventing, managing,
or remediating environmental problems that help fuel instability and
disaffection may reduce the likelihood or intensity of
instability/conflict. Incorporation of
environmental security measures with sustainable development programs builds
political legitimacy in declining/failing states and promotes positive images
of the US. Environmental security
engagement can play a significant role in long-term aspects of countering
terrorism such as development, public relations, and winning “hearts and
minds.”
● Force Protection: environmental hazards can be exploited by terrorists to disrupt/attack US and coalition forces. One example cited was that of Camp Bondsteel (Kosovo). The camp was located 300m from a battery factory that if attacked with a vehicle delivered explosive device would have contaminated the camp as well as nearby civilian areas. Rapid industrialization and urbanization of the Asia-Pacific region and growing levels of improperly disposed industrial/hazardous waste will increase this type of threat to US and other regional forces when deployed to urban or peri-urban environments. In the case of long-term camps/bases, the integration of base environmental protection activities with community outreach and public affairs efforts can build support for bases amongst the local community, open lines of communications between locals and base officials creating “social fences” . These measures may facilitate grassroots provision of I&W of suspicious activities and help deter terrorists who might find pre-operational surveillance and planning difficult in alert, pro-base communities.
This
report was authored by Dr. Chris Jasparro, Assistant Professor in the
Department of Transnational Studies, College of Security Studies, Asia-Pacific
Center for Security Studies.
ABOUT THE ASIA-PACIFIC CENTER
The Asia-Pacific Center (APCSS) is a regional study, conference and research center funded by the U.S. Department of Defense. The Center’s mission is to foster understanding, cooperation, and study of security-related issues among civilian and military representatives of the United States and other Asia-Pacific nations. The Center provides a focal point where national officials, decision makers, and policy experts can gather to exchange ideas, explore pressing issues and achieve a greater understanding of the challenges that that shape the security environment of the Asia-Pacific region. APCSS occasionally publishes articles on Asia policy issues written by APCSS research, staff, and fellows. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Asia-Pacific Center, the Department of Defense, or the United States government.